AI and the impact on Market Research. (Survey will evolve).

As I had 6 months to run down an NDA and a financial cushion, I was lucky enough to think about the MR industry and where it would go. I also had the chance to deep dive into machine learning and generative AI to really understand what it was and how it worked, rather than just looking at outputs in some sort of wonderment.

MR industry counts and gathers opinion

Within the MR industry, we essentially count and gather opinion.

• Counting things is fairly basic and the transition over the last decades has been to count using technology, whether that be server-based measurement (e.g. footfall, google analytics, etc) or panel-based measurement (e.g. UKOP, behaviour measurement). This is fine. It won’t last forever, but I would not be surprised if this is still happening at scale in 10 years time.
• Gathering opinions is somewhat harder. My playing with ML and AI did not find anything that would suggest that opinions on anything new (read – where training data did not already exist) is even in scope for current AI or ML methods. This means that survey in the broadest sense is likely to be the last bastion of the MR industry.

Opinions matter and this won't change for the foreseeable

People’s opinions will matter for as long as people make decisions. Without any evidence whatsoever, I estimate that ultimately human people will still make most decisions for the next half century, even if they are significantly biased by algorithms. 

The concerns about political manipulation right now are the most obvious examples of how people will lose the ability to make decisions, but none the less, even in an election, it is a human being that actually votes, not an algorithm.

So, if survey is here to stay, what will AI do to survey?

I started to think about what a survey is trying to achieve and recognised that a survey and a strategy consultant (or journalist, psychotherapist, or anyone else who 'interviews' someone) have the same goals, but they are approaching in different ways.

·    The life cycle of a survey currently is that a client comes to an MR company with a problem, and a survey consultant converts that into questions which are programmed and served as a script for people to answer. Statistics are then performed on the responses to identify where the script failed to achieve, and where it did achieve, to reach some insight.

·    A strategy consultant performing an interview is somewhat the same. Their client comes to the strategy consultant with a problem and the strategy consultant breaks that into some high-level key information objectives (KIOs). In the interview, likely only one or two initial questions are scripted. As the interview progresses, the strategy consultant creates questions based on the answers they have received and the information already known to them before the interview, before determining the next question.

Obviously, we run surveys because they can be done at scale and provide consistent results, for very little expenditure. But what if we could simulate the function of the strategy consultant, but in an online and scalable way, using AI.

The Online Strategy Interview

Let’s break down what an online strategy interview does.

Preparation

1. Understand the high-level problem being asked by the client/stakeholder.
2. Understand the KIOs that will be found during the interview.
3. Understand what information is available prior to the interview.

During the interview

The interviewer iterates a process that looks like this:

1. What information do I know already, and does this answer a key information objective?
2. If not, what will be the most efficient way to ask the next question to most likely get an answer?
3. Receive and process an answer.
4. Go back to step 1 until complete.

 After the interview

Process the information into answers to the key information objectives and report these as findings.

How it would work (technical requirements)?

In a future online survey world, AI could achieve these steps. It would need the following key capabilities:

Understand the high-level problem being asked and KIOs and Known Information

This would be required in the script as an input. It may be that an AI in the near future can deconstruct a high level problem into Key Information Objectives.

Evaluate whether there is enough information to answer a KIO

This step is very hard, but from various proof of concepts, I believe this is possible with current technology. At the moment, it will require some human guidance, but as time progresses, AI will be able to achieve this.

Determine what question to ask to most optimally get an answer that is closer to achieving a KIO

LLMs are already good at creating text on behalf of code. Initially, this will need some guidance from a human, but at some time in the near future, this guidance will reduce to zero.

Receive responses and understand them

We are already in a good position using LLMs. The respondent can provide anything they like so long as the solution is digital. This could be traditional survey responses (multi, single select; open text) or more novel (e.g. documents, webpages, datasets, video), but the abilities to read and interpret all of these methods is rapidly coming onto the market, and already AWS (Bedrock) and Microsoft (Azure Studio) and independents (…) are delivering one stop shops for deconstructing data.

 

The important thing to recognise is that each of these 4 modular capabilities is absolutely possible now, or at least is only a small technological evolution away. Once these 4 capabilities are created in the general case, then the strategy consultant / journalist / psychotherapist can be replaced with only a guidance script that states the high level objectives and KIOs required in any context.

Note: I have not stated here that all this will need a database schema that is fast and flexible enough to handle queries. This should be obvious, but semi-structured databases (e.g. Mongo) or structured databases containing json fields are obviously available now.

So what would the client experience look like?

The client connects to the system and enters in their problem that they are trying to solve. A “survey” would already be in place to ask the questions that would be asked by a sales consultant, such as relevant webpages, media, key information objectives.

The client would also need to ascertain (or maybe agree with recommendations) what level of accuracy or certainty is necessary.

They then let the system work. The system would keep interviewing from the panel until it had enough information to answer all the Key Information Objectives within the quality parameters set out (or the budget ran out).

And what would the respondent experience look like?

The respondent would get a series of questions. (These could be presented as chat or as video – that is somewhat by-the-by). They would answer in any way they liked, but guided by the interviewer.

So, how is this different?

The fundamental difference between how surveys are conducted now rather than on this system is that questions are dynamically invented in real-time rather than being scripted and programmed in advance.

How realistic is this?

Very. Each step is possible right now with some human guidance. At the moment, each use case needs a guidance script, but this won’t take forever to be made redundant.

Visitors Guide to Getting around London

Visitors Guide to Getting around London

As a Londoner, and traveller to other cities, it’s often very hard to figure out how to get around a city without paying for a taxi. London is congested and every local uses public transport.

The primary means of transport are the “tube”, buses and foot; but also the “overground” and the commuter trains. This blog includes safety, SIM card and dress code information too.

Public Transport / Oyster Card

The most important thing, unless you plan to walk or take taxis, is to get yourself an Oyster card. Often these are sold on the plane coming in. However, you don’t need to buy a card at all, because if you have a credit card with contactless payment, you can use it as your credit card. (But, it will make for a lot of transactions, so if your credit card charges a transaction fee, don’t do this). Buying single tickets each time is expensive, and there are often very long lines. Also, it’s simply not possible to pay for a bus with cash: you have to use Oyster.

Oyster is a plastic, credit card sized electronic card. You place your card on a yellow circle at the entrance and exit to all stations; or just at the entrance to buses. There is a “new card” fee of £3, which is refunded if you can be bothered to get in line to claim your refund. If you have credit on the card, then you can also reclaim that.

Oyster pricing is not as simple as in other cities. Basically, the price for each journey is debited from your card. But, at 2am each morning, computers work out if you could have travelled cheaper with some travel card or other. At that point, you are refunded and benefit you could have had. What this means is that, if you’re spending £20 in a day on single tickets, you need to have that £20 as credit, even if you’ll subsequently get it discounted to £8. If you register you Oyster card online, then you can claim the refund online when you get home. If you use a contactless credit card, then there’s no “new card” fee, and you won’t be charged any more than you need to pay, meaning that there’s nothing to reclaim anyway.

Remember that Amex is not readily accepted in Europe, except in very expensive places. Visa and Mastercard are accepted ubiquitously. Note that for most travel and e-commerce sites, you have to pay a premium to use a credit card (typically 2.5%, more for Amex if it’s taken).

Although it’s cheaper to use Oyster than to pay for single tickets all the time, it is not like most other countries with a flat fare. The price depends on the journey you’ve taken, and sometimes (on longer journeys) on the time of day. Transport in London isn’t cheap either, when compared to other countries, but still much cheaper than taxis. Londoners just stick the Oyster card and travel, and don’t really think about the price. After all, you might not agree with the price, but it’s faster and cheaper than a taxi, and often you’re only option.

You can use Oyster on all transport in London, except the Emirates Line (which is actually a cable car) and Water Ferrys. You can also use Oyster on any commuter train so long as you are not going further than the Overground network (these are the orange lines on the map).

Visitors Tips to finding your Tube Train

Directions to platforms are referred by the name of the line (e.g. Bakerloo or Northern) and the colour. As you get closer to the platform, you will also get a direction (Northbound, Eastbound etc). Be aware that if you’re the line on your tube map is diagonal, it will be marked either of the two possible directions.

The exception is the Northern Line, which you’ll see from the map splits into two when in central London. At Euston (the split at the north), you need to look for “Northern Line via Charing Cross” for the western branch, and “Northern Line via Bank” for the Eastern Line.

If you’re getting out of town, many lines fork, and not all trains go all the way. The digital displays on platforms, and on the front of the train will display the last station that the train is going to. Note that this isn’t always the last station on the line. You need to check that your station is on the way to that last station.

The first tubes typically leave around 5:45 from their origin, and the last trains typically leave their origin before midnight. On platforms, and easy to google for, are the times of the first and last trains. Again, google maps is a great resource if you need to get to Heathrow very early, but you might have to take the Heathrow Express if it’s very very early (e.g. to catch a 6:30am flight).

Figuring out the Buses

Buses are nice because they can often jump traffic, and on the top deck you get a lovely view of London. However they do get stuck in traffic and cannot be relied upon to get you from A to B in the fastest time. It’s not OK anymore to simply jump on a bus that’s stopped at lights (that was stopped in the nineties), and you have to get on at a proper stop. Also, you have to have an Oyster card (or contactless credit card) to use a bus, as it’s not possible to pay with cash.

However, the bus network goes places you can’t reach by tube, and there are two bus systems: the system in the daytime, and a different set at night, which are identified because the bus route has an N prefix (e.g. N68). Night buses are often full of drunks and have a reputation of not being that pleasant to ride on. However, CCTV is all around, and you’re quite safe.

Because the bus network is so much denser than the tube network, there isn’t really a decent map of the system in the same way that tube map is so easy to read. Also, the bus network relies entirely on names of places, so if you don’t know the names, the whole thing is inpenetrable. There isn’t even a decent system of numbering the stops, so you can’t even say “I need to get off at stop 89, and I’m at stop 88 now, so it’s the next one”. Even as a local, I stare at google maps whenever I’m on a bus route I don’t know. However, if you have a data plan on your phone, then the buses are actually quite easy via google maps.

At any stop other than the really big ones, buses only stop if someone sticks out a hand and waves (to get on), or if someone presses the “Stop” button before the stop.

To Bus, Tube or Walk

London is a great city, so walking is a good option if you want to. You’ll see a lot more. Do remember that the tube map, is not an accurate distance representation. Walking in rush hour is also trouble if you have large suitcases.

The tube network is complex (though the map is decent), and often deep. Within the central area, you should consider the time taken to get from the street to the platform, and back up again, and the 1-2 minutes to wait for a train, could easily come to 20 minutes. Walking is usually a faster option than the tube for central London journeys of 1-3 stops.

Buses are great if you can find the stop, except in rush hour. I recommend if you have a data plan, to use Google Maps, because it’s hardwired into the transport system computers and will walk you to exactly the stop. Otherwise, do your research before you tackle the buses.

Airport Transfers

From Heathrow: There is a very expensive train (called the Heathrow Express) into Paddington. This has the advantage that it’s very clean and the actual time on the train is short. But it’s very expensive, only leaves every 30 minutes (which means if you’ve just missed one, you could be in London before the train arrives), and it arrives in Paddington, which is not that well connected. You also need to buy a separate ticket for the Heathrow Express. The Piccadilly line is less attractive and journey time to central London is about 45 minutes, but it’s much cheaper, you can use Oyster, much more frequent, and depending on where you’re trying to get to, is much more likely to take you where you want to be. In rush hour, a cab can take hours and cost hundreds – not a good idea, especially if you’re in a hurry.

• From Gatwick: Gatwick is actually closer to the south coast than to London, but that’s not a problem. There are fairly frequent trains into London (Victoria) or Clapham Junction (which is a great interchange for the south west of the city). The fast train into London (Gatwick Express) saves you about 10 minutes compared to the regular train into London, but is about three times the price. Note that Gatwick is not on the Oyster network, and you need to buy a ticket. Also note that the Clapham train is quite infrequent and the last train is not that late. Taxis are an option, but not a cheap one.
• From Luton: Luton is way out of town to the north. There’s a train that gets into Kings Cross, and you need to buy a ticket for it. You can also get a shuttle bus from the exit. (Luton only has one terminal).
• From City: City airport is very close to London as the crow flies, but not in terms of time because it is not that well connected. Be aware that unless your destination is quite close to the city or the airport, you should prepare quite a lot of time to get to your destination. Definitely use google maps to figure it out the best route.

Choosing a Hotel

If you absolutely have to be central, then book central and be prepared to pay for it. If you’re trying to budget, then seriously consider a cheaper hotel which is close to a tube line. Five miles out of town will get you a room for £40, rather than the minimum £100 inside the circle line (the yellow tube line), and the tube will nowhere cost the difference, and will take almost no time. Distance (as the crow flies) is not a guide to how long it will take to get into London. At the end points of the tube, you get express trains which get you into London faster than a slow train coming in from just a few miles away. For example, the train from Watford takes just 17 minutes and runs every 10-15 minutes.

Getting a cell phone w/ data Plan

There are no restrictions on buying SIM cards in the UK. You don’t need any ID, and at airports you can simply buy them in vending machines. You can also buy them in newsagents, stations, airports etc. All the networks have complete coverage within London (though not on the tube network), and 4G is pretty standard, though the 3G network is also faster than most people are used to. Most of the time, you can Skype/Hangouts over the cell network. You do need to have a GSM phone into which you can put your SIM card, so CDMA phones from Verizon or Sprint won’t work. You can buy a very cheap Android phone for £30 in shops like PC World, Currys and some of the larger stationers like Staples.

The only considerations on choosing the SIM card are the price of international calling (if you don’t have a calling card you can use), and the cost of data. If you’re travelling around Europe, then it’s worth doing some research on roaming costs. Unlike the US, even going to France can be a very expensive experience if you don’t get a plan. Remember that although the UK has no restrictions on anyone buying SIM cards, other European countries are not so lax, so it might be hard to buy a SIM card in France, or Spain. In these countries (amongst others), you need to show a residents’ ID to get a SIM card. You’re better off buying a UK card and getting a pan-European data plan unless you know a local.

Typically, you buy a SIM card, and then you buy a data add-on. Paying for data on a per MB basis can be expensive, so as soon as you stick the SIM card in the phone, dial the customer number (which will be free) and ask for an add-on.

Typically, prices for “add-ons” are around £10 for 600 minutes, and £10 for 4GB of data. Note that the UK does not count incoming calls as minutes. It’s usually a lot less hassle than trying to find wifi all the time.

Tipping in London

Sadly for Americans, there are different rules for tipping if you’re American (and look like a tourist). As a local:

• ·         Restaurants with table service: 10-15%, depending on how much you liked the service. You can go over, but going under is a slur.
• ·         Restaurants where you order at the bar: 5-10%, depending on whether you liked the server.
• ·         Taxis: round up to the nearest pound or two, or 5%
• ·         Bars: tips not expected
• ·         Concierge, bell boy etc: not expected, but appreciated
• ·         Tour guides: Expected, and wide discretion
• ·         Some random help (e.g. directions): a tip would be offensive. If the help was extreme, then a beer or a present (flowers for the wife perhaps) might be ok, but really only if it’s extreme.
• ·         If you are using a credit card that doesn’t have Chip and PIN, then add 5% for their hassle and additional costs.

There’s an unfair expectation that American’s tip more than others, so the perception is that American’s will tip more. Adding 5% to the above will go down well, but certainly is not really expected.

Note that “Service” is often included in the bill you get. It will be on the bill somewhere if it is, and no one will take offence if you ask if service is already on there. Don’t pay the service twice. This is most common for large groups (6+) and in tourist centres.

Adding service to a credit card: you can ask for service to be added to the credit card, but remember to tell them before you give them your card. It can’t be added afterwards. Cash tips are preferred though.

Safety and Security

Some tips:

• ·         London is pretty safe. Crime has never been lower.
• ·         Don’t be flashy, and keep the obvious rules about looking after valuables
• ·         Try not to obviously be a tourist
• ·         Try not to be loud mouthed and screaming to each other, especially if not in English
• ·         Put something in wallet and bags so that someone can return your item to you. Generally, if people can return something you’ve dropped, they will. (And the obvious, don’t just identify your phone number, just in case your phone is in the bag you dropped, or you’re using a different SIM. Also, not everyone can make international calls from their phone. Put an email address in too).
• ·         You don’t need to carry your passport or other ID in the UK. Better to keep it in the hotel safe. Some low level ID might be worth having, but it’s not essential.
• ·         The only crime which is really growing is identify fraud. You should look after your credit card. It is illegal for any shop to take your card out of your sight: they must bring the machine to you.
• ·         Try to use a Chip and PIN card. This is not just safety (because they are so easy to fraud and it’s more credible for the waitor to take your card out of your sight), but also sensible, as a lot of places will either not accept it, and those that do will not thank you for it.

Male Dress Code in London

For business, generally a tie is not worn. Wearing a tie indicates you’re a servant on some description. Ties are work in the financial sector. In media, smart jeans and smart trainers (sneakers for the americans) are OK. Jackets are common.

As a tourist: shorts and baseball caps are rare, and usually flag someone as an American tourist. In hotter weather, bring lighter trousers. Jackets are less common. T-shirts or collared shirts are common too. Jerseys are common, as are hoodies for the younger more casual look. Man bags are more ‘London’ than backpacks, but both are prevalent.

Be aware that London is one of the most relaxed places in Europe. Even outside of London, and certainly in southern Europe, the dress codes are tighter.

Female Dress Code in London

For females, the dress code is more universally consistent in business.

As a tourist, there aren’t any real rules. Skirts should generally be nearer the knee than the hip, and elegant goes does better than slutty.

T Hotel, Caligiari, Sardinia (www.thotel.it)

Stay November 2005

Caligiari has a business hotel with a modern look. Clean and efficient, it is a good hotel to stay in... or at least will be when it is finished. The cheap price now indicates that there are a lot of features that don't work yet, since it was only opened in October 2005.

For example, the fitness center will only be ready in February; broadband in rooms was not available despite being told on the phone 2 days befopre arrival that WLAN was in every room. We eventually got the hotel technitian to run a cable to the room for broadband, but it was not stable enough to connect a VPN, use voice over IP or even replicate email. At least web worked, allowing access to webmail.

The other notable comment is the styling, which is modern in a nineties sort of way. Lime green in every room draws a breath on entry, and sixties retro carpets were for me stomach churning.

Nevertheless, apart from the 'not quite ready functionality', it was a good hotel, with reasonable food, nice (english speaking) staff, and for business purposes fit the bill. I would not go as a tourist, I don't think, as the focus is clearly on business travel.

Tips on Working from Home

Working from home is not always the best option. Having worked from home more than 50% for the last 2 years, here are my top tips:

• Have a backup Internet connection. (Can you convince a neighbour to give you access to their WLAN?). Have a phone that you can answer professionally. It looks awful for someone to call your office number (which is diverting to your home) and a 3-year-old child answers.
• Have a seperate location to work in if you have family. It should be placed where a) you cannot hear their noise; b) they know not to disturb you
• Spend extra time documenting what you are doing. If you are having problems with something whilst in the office, everybody knows you were trying. If you have problems and fail to deliver whilst working from home, people think you are slacking off.
• Make extensive use of Instant Messenger. It help alleviate any sense of isolation.
• Go into the office periodically--just to make sure that you know the office gossip, and everybody knows you are still a player.
• It is only fair to do a 10-hour day when WFH. After all, you save 2 hours travelling.

Working from home is a great option, but it is not all roses, especially if you do the sort of projects which can take a lot of time to complete. Employers get very worried about people slacking when working from home.

The Grove, Chandlers Cross, Herts--Collete's Restaurant

When a restaurant snob can't fault a dinner, you know the restaurant is first class. Collete's surpassed my current lead restaurants (OXO tower and Rhodes 24) as the venue-of-choice in the London area for gastronomic excellence.

The best part is the venue, which justifies arriving an hour or so early to look around, especially if it is summer and you can look round the gardens. Although it is the best part, I am challenged to think of a restaurant experience where the service was more professional (except perhaps the OXO tower), or where the food was better (except perhaps Rhodes 24). Every course was superb, though for me the duck was the highlight, which melted in the mouth in the way that only perfect cuisine can do to meat. Quite exceptionally, the cheese platter offered a Camembert which was without exception the best cheese I have ever tasted--anywhere; ever.

This restaurant comes with some booking caveats: it is extremely hard to get a table unless you are a resident of the hotel, and bookings of more than six are frowned upon. It is worth, perhaps, paying the £200 a night for a room in order to get your reservation. At the very least, start trying to get a table six weeks before you plan to eat, if it is a weekend. Weekdays are easier to get in on.

Price: four of us had three courses, two bottles of wine, martinis to start and good whisky's and brandies to finish with cigars and the bill with extra service added was £450. We had just about the mosexpensiveve stuff on the menu, so you'd be challenged to make the bill higher unless you went for more expensive wine. The semillier can supply some very expensive wines.

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